AFGHANISTAN

An article in the internet version of NYT/International Herald Tribune of May 11, 2011 quotes Senator Richard G. Lugar (R - Indiana):

"The broad scope of our activities suggest that we are trying to remake the economic, political and security culture Afghanistan - but that ambitious goal is beyond our power.  A reassessment of our Afghanistan policy on the basis of whether our overall geostrategic interests are being served by spending roughly $10 billion a month in that country was needed before our troops took out Bin Laden"


You bet, Senator Lugar, right on!

There was also a panel discussion on the MSNBC "Morning Joe" show that same day about the efficacy of "bad-cop" U.S. special troops assassinating Taliban leaders in night raids, while regular daytime army units are trying to play "good-cops" and establish mutual confidence.  The panelists expressed some doubt about the long term efficacy of these efforts.

There needs be no doubt.  Any and all U.S. efforts in Afghanistan are doomed to failure, as has been the case of all foreign involvement in the area throughout history.

The first world power to come away from Afghanistan with a bloody nose was Alexander the Great during his Hindu Kush campaign during 327-26 BC.  He ran into so much trouble that his normally invincible army revolted and demanded to return back home.

Next came the "Great Game" era, with the British and Russian empires hustling for control and influence in the region, the British being anxious to protect the flanks of its imperial "crown jewel", India.  The First Anglo - Afghan War came in 1838, and a puppet regime was installed under Shuja Shah.  (Comparison to America's current "local partner" Hamid Karzai, anyone?).  By 1842 mobs were attacking British nationals in the streets of Kabul forcing full retreat of 14,000 troops, among which all but one of 690 Europeans were killed.   The Second British - Afghan War with 40,000 troops came in 1878 fared no better.

Then came the turn of the Soviets.  After having spent billions of dollars on Afghanistan between 1955 and 1978 to no effect, they finally invaded and slugged it out for ten years until giving up and withdrawing across the "Friendship Bridge" in 1989.  A total of 620,000 Soviet troops were engaged during the period, much of Afghanistan's infrastructure was destroyed, and one-third of the population fled to Pakistan and Iran.

Ironically, it was U.S. money and covert supplies of weapons during this period that gave rise to the Taliban movement.  The movie "Charlie Wilson's War" tells the story.

The Taliban are predominantly ethnic Pashtuns, and the Pashtuns constitute by far the largest segment (42%) of the Afghan population.  There is a saying among them that "First we are Pathan, then we are (Sunni) Muslims, and finally we are either Pakistani or Afghan".   Afghanistan has 8 million Pashtuns and Pakistan has 10 million, and the Pashtuns have never accepted the frontier drawn up in bygone times over a glass of port in an imperial officers' club in London.

The Pashtu Walie (Way of the Pathans) is the iron-bound Pakthun code of honor which has to be obeyed by all Pashtuns at all times, tenets of which sanction murder when honor is insulted.  Men carry weapons at all times.
(1) Badal (Revenge) obligates members of a tribe to exact a revenge for a wrongdoing on other members of a tribe.
(2) Zar, Zan, Zamin (Gold, Women, Land) incite blood feuds which can last for generations.  Families live in high-walled compounds complete with turrets and gun towers.
(3) Death to Old Enmity - Report in every edition of the Khyber Mail.
(4) Milmasthia - Bonds a tribe's members to serve a guest, and that includes giving sanctuary to anyone asking for it, even an enemy.

By paying heed to the above, it does not seem to me particularly difficult to draw some conclusion about the direction of U.S. policy towards Afghanistan, namely:
(a) Do not give money.  It will be stolen or at least not used as intended.
(b) Do not think there is a Pashtun Afghanistan and a Pashtun Pakistan.  There is only a "Pashtunistan".
(c) Do not believe that assassinating Taliban leaders will solve anything.  To the contrary - it will only provoke a whole clan in eternal  search of revenge.  For generations on end, if necessary.  Time is not of essence there.
(d) Do not waste time getting righteously upset at the Pakistani for giving succor to Bin Laden et al.  Think Pashtu Walie.
(e) Stop wasting American lives and treasure on the place.

Leave it to the locals.